Recent FOREX trends  

The dollar has recently been gaining ground. And is there any wonder! The euro tumbled two percent after The French referendum on the European constitution became known, and then even further after the even more resounding "No" from the Dutch population. The dollar, by default, gained ground.

"France and Europe reeled on Monday from a resounding French 'No' vote that could sound the death knell for a proposed constitution for the European Union," a Reuters wire story reported.

"The charter, designed to ensure smooth decision-making in the enlarged bloc, requires the backing of all member states to enter into force."

"While the outcome was not seen jeopardizing the monetary union that underpins the euro," Reuters hopefully surmised, "leaders feared the expected political uncertainty could hit investment and reform efforts."

And let’s face it - particularly the French population, collectively, would never agree to even a hint of economic reform which would defile the sanctity of the 35 hour working week. 35 hours is ample, or so they have decided. Inconveniently however, economic policies that promote short working weeks and low productivity do not always yield an abundance of jobs. The French unemployment rate recently touched a 5-year high of 10.2%.

So where does leave the good old faithful US dollar – touching year high levels against the Euro.

But it would be imprudent indeed to proclaim a new dollar bull market. A Euro bear market - yes; but a dollar bull market – I don’t think so – at least in the medium to long term. In fact there is likely to be a growing disatisfaction with all paper currencies – euros as well as dollars. Perhaps the answer lies in the ground – with that fascinating and enduring yellow metal - gold.

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